Mitchell Lecture 2026

The School of Mathematics and Statistics invites you to

Monday, 5th October 2026, 4-5pm with a wine reception to follow at 5pm

Lecture Room 311B of the Mathematics and Statistics Building, University of Glasgow

Abstract

Accurate environmental risk assessment for precipitation and flooding requires modelling the behaviour of extreme events that may lie well beyond the range of historical observations. In a changing climate, this task is further complicated by non-stationarity in the underlying physical processes and complex dependencies across space and time. This talk presents statistical modelling frameworks designed to quantify these unobserved extremes, specifically addressing the dual challenges of spatial dependence—assessing concurrent risk simultaneously across multiple sites—and temporal scaling, where hazards must be modelled over varying durations. We discuss methodological and computational trade-offs informing current state-of-the-art models and applications to real-world hydro-meteorological data, as well as open questions where new methodologies are needed.

About the speaker

Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir is a Professor of Statistics and Data Science and Deputy Head of the Department of Mathematics at the University of Oslo. She holds a PhD in mathematical statistics from Aarhus University and previously worked as a Chief Research Scientist at the Norwegian Computing Center. Her research develops stochastic, statistical, and machine learning models for the environmental sciences, with a core focus on uncertainty quantification, probabilistic prediction, and proper scoring rules. She is a Joint Editor of the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics).

Event venue & nearby stays

Lecture Room 311B, Mathematics and Statistics Building, University Place, Glasgow, United Kingdom

Concerts, fests, parties, meetups — all the happenings, one place.

Get the app →

Discover more events by tag