About this Event
While the recent geopolitical shifts pose challenges to the calculus of contemporary nuclear deterrence, the intersection of shifting international norms and emerging technology reconfigures the strategic nature of this problem. At the center of this challenge are two competing dynamics: the "moral revolution," which tightens legal and ethical restrictions against targeting civilians, and the "accuracy revolution," which rapidly advances precision-strike counterforce capabilities.
This study argues that while the moral revolution inadvertently undermines the traditional theory of nuclear deterrence that seeks strategic stability, precision technology makes a new retaliatory framework operationally viable, which in turn solves the long-standing dilemma of nuclear deterrence - credibility versus stability. To formalize these dynamics, the paper introduces game-theoretic models that analyze the interplay between normative constraints and technological change. While the formal analysis is ongoing, the paper concludes with a series of conjectures regarding the properties of this novel deterrent strategy, directly comparing it to the standard game-theoretic model of nuclear deterrence.
Speaker:
Shuhei Kurizaki (PhD, UCLA) is an associate professor in the School of Political Science and Economics at Waseda University. Before joining the faculty at Waseda in 2013, he was a pre-doctoral fellow at Harvard University’s Olin Institute for Strategic Studies (2005-2006) and assistant professor in the department of political science at Texas A&M University (2006-2013). His work has appeared in American Political Science Review and International Organization among other outlets. His current research (1) develops and tests formal models to explain how and when diplomacy works in international conflict, (2) utilizes big-data to examine political impacts and consequences of the shifting structure of the globalized networks of production and capital flows, (3) assesses the strategic consequences of Japan’s changing defense policy and its implications for national security, and (4) develops game theoretic models for a new nuclear strategy.
Professor Kurizaki is the winner of the Carl Beck Award, given by the International Studies Association in 2005, the Dina Zinnes Award, given by the Scientific Study of International Processes (SSIP) Section of the International Studies Association in 2006, the Miyake Ichiro Award in 2008, Waseda Teaching Award in 2014, and e-Teaching Award at Waseda University in 2017. His courses explore the causes of war and peace, the history of diplomacy, and formal political theory.
Event venue & nearby stays
Dockrill Room, Department of War Studies, (KIN 628), King's College London, London, United Kingdom
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