Migration, Return Migration & Long-run Effects of Economic Shocks on Crime

Abstract:

We examine two key dimensions related to the impact of migration flows on crime rates. Previous literature has indicated a weak relationship between migration and crime. Empirical evidence often suggests that migration does not exacerbate crime rates and may even reduce certain types of criminal activity. In this paper, we argue that a more nuanced understanding of these effects requires a decomposition of migration flows. Specifically, we distinguish between return migrants and those relocating to new destinations. We highlight that migrants from regions experiencing adverse economic shocks may have distinct impacts on crime rates. Firstly, we investigate whether migration from areas affected by adverse economic shocks has a discernible effect on crime rates. Secondly, we explore whether this effect varies depending on whether individuals are returning to their birthplaces ("returning migrants") or moving to a new one ("migrants"). Our results suggest that returning migrants lower crime rates whereas the effect of migrants on crime is contingent on the extent to which their displacements were triggered by adverse economic shocks.

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