What Can Upstream Learn From Downstream Thinking?

OUR GRATITUDE: A special thank you to Decision Frameworks for hosting this meeting and for supporting the Society of Decision Professionals.

AGENDA (Central Time):

• 3:00 PM - Introductions & Meeting Opening
• 3:15 PM - Presentation: "What Can Upstream Learn From Downstream?", Featuring Luis Mendoza
• 4:00 PM - Networking and HH hosted by Decision Frameworks

ABSTRACT:

What is the true cost of a plant turnaround? How can we better inform our decision when selecting a plant turnaround strategy?

Plant turnarounds are scheduled plant shutdowns in which preventive maintenance and equipment upgrades are conducted in order to ensure safe and compliant operation, improve competitiveness, etc. Teams are often tasked to think strategically about which improvements, beyond the required maintenance, will better position the company to gain competitive advantage and thrive in changing market conditions. However, this strategic thinking often focuses on qualitative multi-attribute analysis to reach consensus and ignores probabilistic quantitative evaluations to better illustrate the trade-offs between competing strategies.

The cost of the turnaround involves the operating cost of executing the maintenance itself and unplanned (surprise) fixes that only become apparent when the plant/factory is shutdown, as well as the capital cost of equipment replacements and upgrades. Furthermore, a significant cost is in the disruption of operations and loss of profits during the shutdown as well as the degradation in operating efficiency over time between turnarounds.

Multi-attribute analysis is an important tool in framing compelling alternatives and assessing them qualitatively. This paper/presentation focuses on the value to be gained by enhancing traditionally qualitative decisions with quantitative analysis using a simple model with well-defined uncertainties and decisions and iterating the permutations using decision analysis software to gain insight into the quantifiable trade-offs.

This will be a fast-paced, interactive session where attendees will describe a future supply chain scenario and develop robust strategies.

In an increasingly unpredictable world, scenario thinking is a crucial tool for developing robust supply chain strategies. The global landscape is characterized by uncertainty, with factors such as geopolitical tensions, technological disruptions, climate change, and pandemics, all of which can significantly impact supply chains. Scenario thinking allows us to anticipate and prepare for a range of possible futures, rather than betting on a single predicted outcome. By considering multiple scenarios, supply chain strategists can identify common elements across different futures and build flexible strategies that can withstand various eventualities. This approach enhances resilience, ensuring supply chains can adapt and thrive amidst uncertainty. Therefore, understanding and applying scenario development and thinking can be incredibly valuable for successful supply chain strategy development.

MEET OUR PRESENTER:

Luis Mendoza is a principal consultant at Decision Frameworks and a decision analysis Lead Practitioner per the Society of Decision Professionals (SDP).

Since joining the team in 2013, he has engaged with Shell on a variety of DADQ projects including offshore development planning and concept select, E&A VOI, renewable energy, R&D technology maturation, and many various economic evaluations.

Luis also leads training courses at Shell (Frame N Go, VOI, etc.) and has presented at several internal community of practice sessions.

He holds a bachelor’s in Industrial Engineering from Texas A&M University, a master’s in systems engineering from the University of Texas at Arlington, and PhD coursework at the University of Texas at Austin.

Event Venue & Nearby Stays

1102 Fugate St, 1102 Fugate Street, Houston, United States