About this Event
In February 2020, Storms Ciara and Dennis caused about £425M damage in the UK (about 21M medium-priced teacup sets). Tropical storm Hagibis (October 2019) was the largest typhoon ever recorded and also one of the costliest typhoons in the Pacific (ca. US$15 billion, much more teacup sets).
Nevertheless, mid-latitude and tropical cyclones are an inherent feature of our global climate system. While on both hemispheres, cyclones are of major importance e.g., for energy and moisture fluxes into Polar Regions, severe cyclones are also responsible for major damages and related socioeconomic and insured losses globally.
The lecture will reflect on recent research to this and discuss questions of the variability of severe storms on different time scales and sources for the occurrence of intense seasons. For mid-latitude storms, the potential predictability of these extreme events on seasonal to decadal time scales will be analysed based on latest forecast products and related to known forecast skill of large-scale modes like the NAO. Aspects of the potential maximum intensity of mid-latitudes cyclones in relation to historically observed intensities are discussed, as well as robust frequency-intensity distributions of tropical cyclones in the North-West Pacific. Both aspects are of high relevance for applications e.g., in the financial industry.
Event Venue & Nearby Stays
University of Birmingham, Ring Road South, Birmingham, United Kingdom
GBP 0.00